Bangladesh’s political transition and the Rohingya crisis

What BNP’s victory means for repatriation and regional stability, ARNO welcomes election outcome while ongoing violence in Myanmar clouds prospects for safe return

The victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in Bangladesh’s February 2026 national elections has triggered renewed debate over the future of the Rohingya crisis — one of South Asia’s most protracted and politically sensitive humanitarian emergencies.

In a statement issued on February 13, the Arakan Rohingya National Organisation (ARNO) congratulated BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman and welcomed what it described as a democratic mandate. Beyond formal congratulations, however, ARNO’s message reflects deeper expectations: that the new government will recalibrate diplomatic engagement on Rohingya repatriation while safeguarding refugee rights in Bangladesh.

A Legacy of Hosting and Diplomatic Engagement

Bangladesh currently hosts approximately 1.4 million Rohingya refugees, the vast majority residing in Cox’s Bazar district. The influx has unfolded in waves — notably in 1978, 1991–92, and most dramatically in 2017 following Myanmar’s military operations in northern Rakhine State.

BNP leaders historically played central roles in earlier repatriation efforts. Under President Ziaur Rahman in 1978, Dhaka negotiated a bilateral repatriation arrangement with Myanmar that facilitated the return of thousands. Later, in 1992, during the premiership of Khaleda Zia, approximately 236,599 Rohingya were repatriated under another agreement.

For ARNO and other Rohingya advocacy groups, these precedents demonstrate that political will, coupled with bilateral negotiation and international backing, can produce measurable outcomes. However, the geopolitical landscape today is significantly more fragmented than during previous repatriation episodes.

Tarique Rahman’s Position and Policy Signals

Tarique Rahman has publicly reaffirmed that Rohingya refugees are welcome to remain in Bangladesh until conditions in Myanmar permit safe return. He has also emphasized that any repatriation must be “safe, dignified, and voluntary,” echoing language consistently used by humanitarian agencies.

This positioning reflects a delicate balancing act. Domestically, Bangladesh faces mounting socio-economic pressure in host communities, rising environmental strain in Cox’s Bazar, and security concerns linked to protracted camp conditions. Internationally, Dhaka must maintain diplomatic leverage over Myanmar while preserving support from key global donors.

Whether the BNP government will pursue a more assertive regional diplomatic strategy — potentially engaging ASEAN stakeholders or strengthening multilateral legal pressure — remains to be seen.

Conditions Inside Rakhine: Structural Barriers to Return

ARNO’s statement underscores a critical obstacle: the security environment inside northern Rakhine State.

According to documentation by Human Rights Watch and other monitoring bodies, both Myanmar security forces and the Arakan Army have been implicated in serious abuses, including extrajudicial killings, arson, forced labour, and child recruitment. Reports suggest that the Arakan Army has imposed severe movement restrictions and governance controls in areas under its influence.

These developments complicate any immediate repatriation framework. Unlike the early 1990s, when bilateral agreements operated within a relatively centralized state structure in Myanmar, the current conflict environment involves fragmented armed actors and contested territorial control.

Without verifiable guarantees of citizenship rights, freedom of movement, property restitution, and international monitoring mechanisms, large-scale voluntary return appears operationally unrealistic.

The International Dimension: Law, Pressure, and Funding Gaps

ARNO has called upon the United Nations and the International Criminal Court to intensify accountability efforts. Legal proceedings related to alleged crimes against the Rohingya are ongoing in international forums, yet enforcement remains constrained by geopolitical divisions.

Meanwhile, humanitarian financing continues to decline. Major donors, including the United States and European partners, have reduced contributions compared to peak funding years. Aid agencies operating in Cox’s Bazar warn that chronic underfunding affects food rations, education programs, and livelihood initiatives.

For Bangladesh’s new administration, managing donor fatigue while preventing camp destabilization will be as critical as diplomatic engagement with Myanmar.

Strategic Implications for Bangladesh

The BNP government inherits a multidimensional challenge:

Humanitarian management: sustaining basic services for 1.4 million refugees.

Security oversight: preventing criminal networks and armed infiltration within camps.

Diplomatic navigation: maintaining leverage over Myanmar amid regional power competition.

Legal positioning: supporting international accountability mechanisms without escalating bilateral tensions.

The Rohingya crisis intersects with broader regional dynamics — including China–India strategic competition in the Bay of Bengal, instability within Myanmar following the 2021 military coup, and evolving armed control patterns in Rakhine State.

Prospects for the Road Ahead

ARNO’s readiness to cooperate with Bangladesh on documentation, confidence-building, and reconstruction initiatives signals willingness within Rohingya civil society to engage constructively. However, the structural drivers of displacement — statelessness, denial of citizenship, militarization, and ethnic discrimination — remain unresolved inside Myanmar.

For Kaladan Press Network’s audience, particularly those monitoring developments across the Bangladesh–Myanmar border, the key question is not simply whether repatriation will occur — but under what conditions and with what safeguards.

The BNP’s electoral mandate may create renewed diplomatic momentum. Yet without demonstrable improvements in security, rights protections, and international oversight in Rakhine State, large-scale voluntary return remains a distant objective.

For now, Bangladesh continues to shoulder the humanitarian burden, while the political future of the Rohingya people remains tied to an uncertain trajectory inside Myanmar.